Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Winner, recently held a Q & A with his New York Times readers. If you’re interested in reading the latest news about the global economy , especially the U.S economy, click on the link below and it will take you to his responses. I highly recommend taking the time to read it.
From everything he said in the Q & A, the most intriguing to me was the following:
“Q. What are the three most important factors to track (and over what time frame) to gauge if the economy has finally turned the corner. How critical are household wealth and consumer debt in influencing the above factors – are they lagging or predictive indicators?
A. What I can tell you is what I’m watching. I’m watching unemployment insurance claims – I won’t feel that we’re over the worst until those drop well below 400,000 a week. (they’re still in the mid-5s) I’m watching the ISM surveys, looking for signs of strong (not marginal) growth. And I’m watching the monthly employment reports.
Wealth and debt are predictive factors, not indicators. And for what it’s worth, they’re predicting a long, hard slog.”