MONEY matters

"I am reluctant to sell China short, not because I think it has no problems or corruption or bubbles, but because I think it has all those problems in spades — and some will blow up along the way (the most dangerous being pollution). But it also has a political class focused on addressing its real problems, as well as a mountain of savings with which to do so (unlike us)."

Read Thomas Friedman's new op-ed this morning in the New York Times that asks the provocative question; Is China The Next Enron?

There are so many predictions about how markets here in the US as well as around the world are going to perform in 2010 that it could make you dizzy. I think one of the most objective and responsible sources for being able to read the tea leaves is The Economist.

If you have stock investments, please check out this sobering article, Bubble Warning. In addition, this current issue is jam packed with info on this topic.

As we approach 2010, it’s amazing and scary to think how close the world came to another Great Depression. For my money, that was too close for comfort. Although the global economic recovery is still fragile, at least we’re recovering.  With the New Year approaching, there are a new set of indicators to pay attention to. Top on that list is China. I’m not that concerned with China holding close to a trillion dollars in reserve, since selling dollars wholesale would certainly be mutually assured destruction for the U.S and China. What concerns me is U.S unemployment staying at high levels next year and the congress looking for scapegoats.

If we allow China to become the scapegoat, and this theme starts to catch on with members of Congress, we’re going to have problems. Next year, pay close attention to the debates being held in Congress and see if any anti-China legislation starts to gain momentum. Of course, China’s currency policy is manipulative and needs to be reformed. But telling one of your largest creditors what to do, well, that just isn’t going to work. Whether we like it or not, the Chinese finance minister is our lender in chief. How we allowed our country to get so deeply in debt and become a debtor nation instead of a creditor nation is a story that will be told for generations to come. But it is what it is, and right now, China has the upper hand.

OK - it stinks that we lost the 2016 Olympics to Brazil, but at least from an investment perspective, there may be a silver lining here after all.

Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Winner, recently held a Q & A with his New York Times readers. If you’re interested in reading the latest news about the global economy , especially the U.S economy, click on the link below and it will take you to his responses. I highly recommend taking the time to read it.

From everything he said in the Q & A, the most intriguing to me was the following:

Below are some top five listings that may be of interest to you. This is purely for educational purposes and does not constitute a recommendation to buy. As always, do your own research before making any decisions. The results below are year to date for 2009:

Top 5 Performing Vanguard Mutual Funds:

With the stock market finally showing us some love after a brutal 8-9 months of wild rollercoaster rides, it’s easy to slip into old habits and trick yourself into thinking the good old days are around the corner. As President Obama said today, there are glimmers of hope that the economy may be turning a corner. Add to the mix a general consensus form many leading economists that the recession may end in September and you have a positive outlook for the future.

If you’ve been saving money, maybe for the first time in a while, but you sense the stock market is headed back up so you’ll take it easy and put your newly found saving habit on hold, please reconsider. If you have been flexing your frugal muscle and now with some good news from the market you’re feeling that familiar pull to spend, stop, think about what you’re spending the money on, is it a need or a want, can you live without it for now, and then go back to saving more.

I kid you not. This is the headline of an article in the New York Times web edition this morning. Add that with a similar story on China in this week’s edition of the Economist, and you start to get a sense of the amount of power and clout China now wields on the geopolitical stage.

Of course, much of this is political and economic posturing ahead of the G20 meeting. Yet it’s undeniable that China is beginning to flex its financial muscles. “China has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, valued at nearly $2 trillion, with more than half of those holdings estimated to be made up of United States Treasuries and other dollar-denominated bonds”.